The dollar is rising due to expectations of rate increases

The dollar is rising due to expectations of rate increases

The dollar was bolstered by Friday’s carefully watched jobs report, which indicated that the US labor market was at or near-maximum capacity. “After the NFP (nonfarm payrolls) report on Friday, a number of sell-side firms have updated their Fed expectations,” Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, wrote in a note. On Monday, the dollar gained ground against a basket of currencies after recent employment data spurred some Wall Street banks to boost their forecasts for how rapidly the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates four times this year and begin the process of reducing its balance sheet size as soon as July. The bank, which earlier predicted the Fed would raise rates in March, June, and September, now expects another hike in December. On Friday, J.P.Morgan and Deutsche Bank also forecast an aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Traders have priced in an 80% chance of a rate hike in March according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was up 0.4% at 96.15. The index remains close to the 16-month high touched late in November. The dollar was supported by Friday’s closely watched employment report which suggested the U.S. job market was at or near maximum employment. “A number of sell-side firms have revised their Fed forecasts after the NFP (nonfarm payroll) report on Friday,” Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, said in a note. “With the unemployment rate below 4%, the Fed could probably declare their job on employment ‘completed’ which does indeed set us up for an even faster period of taper potentially,” Bechtel said.

Traders have ramped up bets for rate hikes this year after the U.S. central bank’s minutes from the December meeting suggested an earlier-than-expected rate hike and the possibility the Fed may cut its bond holdings sooner than many initially thought. Investors will be watching inflation data and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard this week for clues to the timing and speed of rate hikes.

U.S. December consumer inflation data is expected on Wednesday, with headline CPI seen coming in at a red-hot 7% year-on-year, boosting the case for interest rates to rise sooner rather than later. Sterling on Monday fell 0.33% against the dollar, even as easing fears about the adverse impact of the Omicron variant on the economy helped it rise to a near-two-year high against the euro. Cryptocurrencies, which have faced pressure from broad selling in risk assets at the start of this year, weakened on Monday, with bitcoin down 2.7% at $40,736.2.

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