News Tech: The dollar hit an almost one-and-a-half-year high against the euro on Monday. Stock market volatility is expected to boost the dollar in the short term as traders focus on upcoming Australian, UK, and European central bank meetings. The euro EUR= was at $1.1148, just below last Friday’s low of $1.1119, and its lowest since June 2020. The Australian dollar was close to Friday’s 18-month low at $0.6991, while the pound was at $1.34015, close to $1.34015. Last week’s monthly low.
Analysts at Barclays said the US dollar ‘laughed’ again, supported by a combination of interest rate adjustments and much weaker risk sentiment. Looking ahead, he said bearish and volatile stocks could support the dollar, but last week’s move meant that an “aggressive normalization cycle” was priced in, so rate hike expectations could push the dollar lower. The potential for further increases is limited. The Dollar Index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, stood at 97.205, just below its 18-month high of 97.441 on Friday.
The US dollar posted its best week in seven months last week, aided by investors seeking safety amid the sale of riskier assets and analysts raising their forecasts for US rate hikes. MSCI’s leading global index of 50 countries. MIWD00000PUS is headed for its worst month since the pandemic began MKTS/GLOB. Market prices now point to a more than 90% chance of at least four rate hikes by the end of the year and a 67% chance of at least five rate hikes.
The yen was in the middle of its recent range at 115.23 yen to the dollar, hit by headwinds from higher US interest rates, with little prospect of a domestic rate hike, but some demand for the yen as a safe haven. did. US payroll is due on Friday, but this week’s focus shifts slightly away from the Fed to other central banks. Australian watchers are eagerly waiting for Tuesday’s central bank meeting amid growing hopes for an announcement of the end of the quantitative easing program. This will be followed by a speech by his RBA governor on Wednesday and a monetary policy statement on Friday.