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Dollar expects quarterly growth of 2.8% with safe flows

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News Tech: The dollar rose on Thursday as a lack of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine boosted demand for the safe-haven currency and as the United States announced the largest release ever from its emergency oil reserve to try to blunt the energy shock from the war . The dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of six global peers, was up 0.492% at 98.31 at 2:30 pm EDT.

The dollar has attracted safe-haven flows since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, and is on track for a rise of around 1.6% for the month of March, and around 2.8% for the first quarter. Month- and quarter-end flows have caused some additional volatility for markets, but trade is likely to muted ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures, said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.

Crude prices, which have been elevated due to the war, plunged on the news. Commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, declined, with the Aussie down 0.34% at $0.74845 and the kiwi down 0.57% at $0.6931. Hopes from earlier this week that peace talks would lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine five weeks after Russia’s invasion have dwindled, with Ukrainian forces preparing for new Russian attacks in the southeast of the country.

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